April 7th, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence makes Smart Grid Interoperability Premature
Many in the smart grid industry are concerned about interoperability. However, we at the ebTDesign Forum would advise industry leaders that a call for interoperability is premature and could lead to reduced industry innovation. We would suggest concentrating on support for hydrogen convergence and massively distributed power generation (MDPG).
As long as the customer-premise equipment is MDPG aware, vendors can compete on other system attributes without regard to interoperability. This would also open up the smart grid market to intrinsic opportunities associated with regional differences. Hydrogen Convergence via MDPG would provide a built-in alternative path solution for both residential and commercial customers.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: alternative path, hydrogen, MDPG, smart gridApril 5th, 2010
Reality of Hydrogen Convergence for Utility Providers
Reality is starting to set in for incumbent utility providers. It’s getting harder and harder to finance the building and maintenance of coal-fired power plants. Institutional investors are becoming unwilling to invest in energy assets that could substantially decrease in value because of the regulatory risk associated with carbon pricing. Now is the time to make the business case for early investment in hydrogen convergence.
As we published last week, hydrogen convergence requires that utility providers think of energy security differently. Utility providers have a responsibility to rate payers to supply them with the kind of reliable power that only alternative-path hydrogen convergence can produce. The good news is that utility companies have already started to embrace massively distributed power generation. We are starting to see them enter solar roof top leasing in states like California. This trend will eventually include hydrogen convergence.
If the incumbent utility companies don’t embrace hydrogen convergence then they are going to loose market share to Independent Power Providers (IPP) through fleet sales. Hydrogen Convergence provides car rental companies with an opportunity to recoup their stranded costs. Every hydrogen car sitting on their lot can be used to produce electricity. Plus, rental sales will go up for communities that are prone to power outages at any hint of inclement weather.
We at the ebTDesign Forum would advise incumbent utility providers to enter the hydrogen convergence marketplace once the automakers introduce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles into fleet sales. Utility providers are not going to want to see their markets cannibalized by IPP sales like the telecom companies were by the competitive local exchange carriers (CLEC). Because utility providers don’t have the barriers to entry that the big telecoms did, they will not be able to subvert IPP market growth. Consumers will be able to easily cut utility companies out of the loop.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: alternative path, hydrogen, IPP, MDPG, utility providersFebruary 16th, 2010
Has Hydrogen Convergence reached Tipping Point?
Many in the mainstream media like to discuss when hydrogen convergence will reach its tipping point. Guessing the tipping point of emerging technologies has become so popular that it is now a parlor game played at even the best upscale parties. However, we at the ebTDesign Forum would advise institutional investors that knowing the point of overreliance is much more important to their success.
The “point of overreliance” is an event that casts doubt on the robustness of a given infrastructure solution. Typically, the point of overreliance ends any extraordinary funding cycle and starts a decline in the assets perceived value. This is because institutional investors must make room in their portfolios for “alternative path” opportunities in order to protect their clients’ money.
The point of overreliance happened for satellite communication when the Challenger Spaces Shuttle accident occurred. It happened for the telephone industry in the early 1990’s when it was found that a single point of failure on the east coast could bring down the entire aviation system. Last week, it happened to the electricity supply industry when 100,000 families in the Greater Washington DC area were left without power after record snowfall.
It does not matter how extraordinary the circumstances are that led to the event. The failure still shows that there is a systemic flaw in the asset deployment and that a risk mitigation plan needs to be executed. As you know, hydrogen convergence is the best alternative path solution for an over stretched electricity power grid. If residents had had hydrogen cars then the record snowfall would have been a nuance but no where near as life threatening.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: alternative path, electricity, hydrogen, point of overrelianceFebruary 11th, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence as Driven by Institutional Investors
Until now, we at the ebTDesign Forum have talked about hydrogen convergence from a retail context. We have talked about the need to protect consumers from radical changes in energy pricing and sustainable job growth. However, a case could be made that hydrogen convergence may more easily be driven by institutional investors.
Institutional investors are the big dollar portfolio managers that control enormous sums of other people’s money. They make investment decisions for banks, insurance companies, and pension plans. They invest in airports and hold municipal bonds. They are also responsible for mitigating the risk. And, it is their need to reduce the risk associated with climate change that we propose will drive their interest in hydrogen convergence.
It really doesn’t matter whether or not institutional investors personally believe in global climate change. They must mitigate the risk posed by natural disasters. While individuals may make investment decisions based solely on public opinion without consequences, institutional investors must make informed decisions and be able to show how they are protecting other people’s money.
Institutional investors must protect all their investments not just the cleantech ones and the best way to do this is via hydrogen convergence. So, portfolio managers must invest in “alternative path” cleantech strategies because they insure the value of future returns. They have to be concerned about business continuity. Be it snowstorms or hurricanes, business must continue to operate or stakeholders will lose and that is the bottom line.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: alternative path, cleantech, hydrogen, natural disastersFebruary 8th, 2010
Does Obama have Fiduciary Responsibilities for Hydrogen Convergence?
As we awake this morning, there are families still without electricity because of record setting snow fall. This may be an act of God but it is also something that could have been foreseen. The question then becomes does President Barack Obama have a fiduciary responsibility to invest more in hydrogen convergence to alleviate the kind of pain and suffering we saw this weekend.
While electricity maybe unavailable for residents and businesses in the affected areas, they probably still have their Internet access (i.e., once power returns). One of the reasons is because of a design concept called “alternative path.” Literally, this means bringing communications lines into different sides of the building which provides redundancy.
The problem with the Obama administration’s cleantech strategy is that it does not provide for an alternative path. All of the new power generation will enter the home and/or business through the same portal. Hydrogen Convergence is the only cleantech alternative that can bring electricity in through the garage or through the natural gas infrastructure.
What price should the White House put on the pain and suffering caused by natural disasters? How should the Congressional Budget Office accrue for the loss of life due to exposure that could have been prevented by early investment in hydrogen convergence? If President Obama truly believes in the threat of climate change then why would he oppose hydrogen infrastructure that could protect working and middle class families?
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: alternative path, electricity, hydrogen, Internet, natural disasters