March 9th, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence makes Climate Sensitivity Manageable
There was term we used in the 1990’s for a potentially catastrophic scenario once we had figured out a solution. The phrase was “challenging but manageable.” We at the ebTDesign Forum would advise readers and social media followers that hydrogen convergence makes climate sensitivity challenging but manageable.
Climate sensitivity is the near-surface air temperature phenomenon that describes how the earth reacts to fluctuations in the global concentration of green house gases. The challenge is helping non-scientists understand that a minute change in the average global temperature will trigger catastrophic failures and lead to massive job losses.
Working and middle class Americans should be provided with technologies that will reduce the leap of faith they must take to combat the threat posed by climate sensitivity. Hydrogen Convergence can do this by addressing the production of green house gases from fossil fuels and non-fossil fuel sources. The first step is to move the tail pipe so that cars run cleaner then by using renewable energy and carbon neutral energy feedstock to generate hydrogen. This makes climate sensitivity manageable.
There was a time when something occurring in an “instant” had meaning. Now we ask, “Is that instant measured in microseconds or nanoseconds?” With the advent of computers, we have learned to live in world that is composed of smaller and smaller elements. We at the ebTDesign Forum propose that the current generation of young people will do the same when it comes to understanding climate sensitivity.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: climate sensitivity, hydrogen, manageableMarch 8th, 2010
Bringing Architecture Discipline to the Cleantech Challenge
As many of you know, the challenge for companies in the cleantech sector is how to describe the benefits of their business case without being sidetracked by climate change confounders. In other words, how to make them sticky without compromising the P2P Economy value? We at the ebTDesign Forum advise readers and social media followers to consider the practice of architecture discipline.
Architecture discipline requires adhering to at least three design considerations when developing an architecture description or investment thesis. The benefit for those who choose to practice this discipline is that an architecture description is inherently sticky. The three design considerations that we at the ebTDesign Forum most often propose are:
- Is it simple?
- Is it tangible?
- Is it relevant?
Climate Change Confounders are similar to industry tourists. Confounders are industry experts for hire. They miss use science and the scientific process to lesson the threat of CO2 emissions and other man made contributors. Industry tourists are subject matter experts for hire that come baring silver bullets. Both of these so-called gurus are most distinguished by their propensity for being out of town before the crash but after the checks have been cashed.
Institutional investors and other valued stakeholders constantly suffer from information overload and most cannot tell the difference between good-science versus bad-science without help. Confounders use this knowledge like lawyers in an attempt to raise reasonable doubt. Continued adherence to the concept of architecture discipline will neutralize this strategy because the value of good design is intuitively apparent.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: architecture-discipline, cleantech, confounders, hydrogen, touristsMarch 5th, 2010
Announcing: Shine a Light on DOE Hydrogen Review YouTube Contest
We at the ebTDesign Forum are proud to announce the “Shine a Light on the DOE Hydrogen Merit Review Contest.” This YouTube contest will attempt to democratize the DOE Hydrogen Merit Review process by showing advances in worldwide hydrogen convergence. Submissions will be evaluated for inclusion in a subsequent YouTube playlist. We at the ebTDesign Forum propose that the act of opening up the Merit Review process to more citizen involvement will trigger additional investments in all facets of hydrogen convergence.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: hydrogen, merit review, Shine a Light, YouTubeMarch 4th, 2010
Lets Talk Hydrogen Convergence for 03/04/10
Episode 17: Catastrophic Civilization Altering Challenge –Been there done that, Davos Dream Scenario: Bill Clinton, Follow-up from ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit and other Hydrogen Convergence Events
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
March 3rd, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence via Innovation-Infrastructure
Earlier this week, we at the ebTDesign Forum proposed a timeline for massive carbon reduction using hydrogen convergence. At the top of that list was the goal of establishing a national innovation-infrastructure for hydrogen convergence by 2012. Many of you may not be familiar with the concept of an innovation-infrastructure and why it is so important to post-Globalization adoption.
An innovation-infrastructure provides a community with peripheral vision or the means of identifying and utilizing bright new ideas from the fringes of the organizational space. Peripheral vision provides human beings with the capability of detecting motion that is outside our general field of view. It is our number one means of triggering flight or fight mechanisms.
Post-Globalization, an innovation-infrastructure provides hydrogen convergence colonies with the necessary feedback loop for navigating the changing investment landscape. An example of why this is so important can be seen in the decision by the DOE to cancel hydrogen projects last year. If the DOE had had a functioning innovation-infrastructure, it would have detected the extremely high level of creative activity and known that its goals were being met.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: hydrogen, Innovation-Infrastructure, periphery vision, post-GlobalizationMarch 2nd, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence not really an Issue of Chicken or Egg
Many in the cleantech sector like to ask if the adoption of hydrogen convergence represents a chicken or egg scenario. We at the ebTDesign Forum would advise our readers and LinkedIn followers that it is neither. We would suggest that it is more an upsider versus downsider situation.
Upsiders will intuitively recognize the game changing aspects of hydrogen convergence and want to be a part of it. They will see possibilities for future cleantech markets and that will enough. Upsiders will make their decisions based on their perceived value of the available applications.
On the other hand, downsiders won’t want to move until success is assured. They will stress about the lack of hydrogen filling stations and ignore the fact that the United States produces nine million tons of hydrogen a year. They will want to debate the legitimacy of climate change data versus the possibilities of sustainable job growth.
In short, the most important thing about taking an emerging technology mainstream like hydrogen convergence is the availability of applications. Hydrogen Convergence already has a number of them with more being developed everyday. And, application is the only true measure any technology’s success.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: cleantech, hydrogen, success, true measureMarch 1st, 2010
Proposal: Carbon Reduction Timeline via Hydrogen Convergence
After reading yesterday’s blog segment on meeting the world’s carbon reduction targets, many of you will ask what the hydrogen convergence timeline looks like. This is important because it is difficult to agree on an investment roadmap without a consensus on when the necessary components must be available. We at the ebTDesign Forum propose the following:
- Hydrogen Convergence Innovation-Infrastructure available by 2012
- Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles rollout in 2015
- Peak Carbon achieved because of hydrogen convergence by 2020
- 80% Carbon Reduction via hydrogen convergence by 2050
We at the ebTDesign Forum look forward to hearing your comments on this proposed hydrogen convergence timeline. Does it meet your expectations? Should it be adjusted based the fact that some of the research has shown that climate change is accelerating. You can leave a message on twitter at @zalexander and on Facebook at “Let’s Talk Hydrogen Convergence.”
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: hydrogen, Innovation-Infrastructure, roadmap, timelineFebruary 28th, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence Safest Path to Carbon Reductions
The scientists who have been developing the forecast for climate change agree that an 80% carbon reduction must be attained by 2050 to avert climate change calamity. Now there are numerous ideas for achieving this goal but hydrogen convergence is by far the safest path to carbon reduction and sustainable job growth.
The leading contender in the minds of some is nuclear energy. However, the nuclear power industry had its day in the sun during the 1950’s. Now it’s time to face the political reality that no one wants to live and raise children next to nuclear waste dumps. Also, there are way too many “big rig truck” accidents to seriously consider offsite storage of nuclear waste.
Dinosaurs die hard because it’s difficult to kill a revenue generating technology. However, some of us lived in Europe just after the Chernobyl nuclear power disaster and we can tell you that neighboring countries were very upset with the Russians. Imagine our balance of trade with Canada and Mexico, our two most important trading partners, in the aftermath of a nuclear power disaster like Chernobyl. You think that the “Great Recession” is bad?
For the rest, there is renewable energy. However the proponents of these electricity-only strategies dismiss the “downsider effect” on public opinion and the willingness of local leaders to delay projects that they agree with in theory. Renewable energy advocates turn a tin-ear to downsider concerns about community character in light of cleantech tribal desires for carbon neutral energy.
The safest most environmentally cost effective means of reaching the 80% carbon reduction target is hydrogen convergence. Producing hydrogen from natural gas could achieve a 50% carbon reduction today. Add on algal carbon sequestration and that process drops close to zero. Additional hydrogen generation from waste gases and renewable energy could then easily combine to make up the 30% difference needed to meet the 2050 goal.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: carbon reduction, Chernobyl, downsider effect, hydrogenFebruary 26th, 2010
Hydrogen Convergence needs more Amateur Dinosaur Hunters
The PC and dotcom eras were led by people who were motivated by the desire to simply do things better. This is missing from the development of hydrogen infrastructure at this time. There are too many organizations that want to own the hydrogen convergence movement. They want apply a litmus test to those who seek join the movement rather than being grateful for the community.
We at the ebTDesign Forum have published blog segments about the need to use industry cluster empowerment instead of a bi-coastal strategy for deploying hydrogen infrastructure. The reason for advocating empowerment is because it takes advantage of unique possibilities that each region contains. And, it provides a platform for colonizing existing industry clusters.
The hardest thing to teach new entrepreneurs is when to shift from a product oriented focus to a market oriented concentration. Product focused executives think in terms of monopolies and high barriers to entry. Executives that concentrate on market development understand that limiting the participation of amateurs will increase labor and training cost. Remember when you are taking down a big dinosaur like the nuclear power industry or the coal industry, there is strength in numbers.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: bi-coastal, dinosaur hunters, hydrogen, industry clusterFebruary 25th, 2010
Lets Talk Hydrogen Convergence for 02/25/10
Episode 16: Engineering Hydrogen Convergence for the rigors of Davos connections, New Cleantech Videos added Hydrogen Convergence Channel on YouTube, Shine a light YouTube Contest and other Hydrogen Convergence Events
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
February 24th, 2010
Recognizing Hydrogen Convergence as the Next Long Wave
Some readers and other educators have asked what they should tell young people about how hydrogen convergence will affect their careers. We at the ebTDesign Forum would advise them to view hydrogen convergence as the next long wave. A long wave is a series of industry-related game changing events. Also, inform them that it wasn’t just the dotcom bubble that characterized the last long wave.
The last long wave started in the early 1980’s with the introduction of personal computers. It continued through the 1990’s with the Internet portal wars and into the new millennium with skirmishes over cloud-computing. Those people who jumped on this wave at the beginning saw their earning potential grow with each generation of new technology. They also enjoyed increased respect and influence based on their longevity.
Long waves represent the only operational way of resetting the wage scale. Because of this, national governments often endeavor to impose their will on its trajectory. They pick “national champions” much like the Obama Administration has done with the nuclear power industry. Unfortunately, the post-Globalization marketplace is littered with carcasses of these ill-conceived attempts at financial engineering and business coercion. Such is the case when dinosaurs are overtaken by the next long wave.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: career, hydrogen, long wave, post-GlobalizationFebruary 23rd, 2010
Introducing Bill Gates to the Power of Hydrogen Convergence
Does it matter that Bill Gates doesn’t yet support hydrogen convergence? When the Internet was first commercialized Mr. Gates didn’t get it. He and Microsoft failed to recognize the value of Linux. We at the ebTDesign Forum would suggest that a case could be made that the success of hydrogen convergence is assured by his non-support.
Someone in Bill’s inner circle should remind him of the power of massively-parallel grid computing. We would suggest they recount the impact of P2P technology like the Kazaa Music Player on the music industry and of Skype entering the telecommunication market. This should provide a preview of the gaming changing results that massively-distributed power generation will have on the electricity supply and nuclear power industries.
Post-Globalization, it is nonsensical to believe that working and middle class families will willingly live next to nuclear waste dumps. There was a major hazardous waste spill on one of the highways in the Washington DC area after the last snowstorm. Could you imagine the damage that could have been caused by a similar accident involving nuclear waste?
We at the ebTDesign Forum stick by our observation that the nuclear power industry is on its last legs. We would like to thank Mr. Gates for his service over the years but remind him that he made his fortune with personal computers and by dinosaur hunting. If he wants to change the world, we invite him to join the hydrogen convergence movement. He’ll feel a lot more at home.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: Bill Gates, hydrogen, nuclear waste, post-GlobalizationFebruary 22nd, 2010
Preparing Hydrogen Convergence for Davos
There’s an old adage that says you should prepare for what you want to do not for what you are currently doing. We at the ebTDesign Forum want to see the post-Globalization marketplace powered by hydrogen convergence. In order to do that we need to engineer hydrogen convergence so that it can take its place on the world stage. And, there is no bigger stage than the one in Davos, Switzerland, during the World Economic Forum (WEF).
Davos is the best place to do the deals that can rapidly lead to the kind of early investments that will advert climate change and jumpstart the post-Globalization economy. Every January, world leaders and the captains of industry meet to discuss the future of international business. We at the ebTDesign Forum look forward to the time when these politicians and pioneers want to get serious about creating sustainable job growth and hydrogen convergence.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: Davos, hydrogen, post-Globalization, WEFFebruary 21st, 2010
Addressing Downsider concerns about Hydrogen Convergence
As you know, hydrogen convergence is the best way to create sustainable job growth while stopping the “bubble and bust” cycle caused by supply-side economics. Readers and twitter followers who are building their cases for early investment in hydrogen convergence are going to have account for the interests of at least two distinct constituencies. They are the upsiders and the downsiders.
Upsiders have a complex need that they want satisfied. These stakeholders are located in niche markets which are either underserved by the current energy regime or under-participate. They are skeptical of electricity-only solutions and realize that not every business problem can be solved by a government handout or tax cut. Most importantly, they understand that the post-Globalization landscape is new and difficult to navigate.
Downsiders represent the far edge of the mainstream lifecycle. These constituents won’t change until they see that everyone else has changed. Downsiders are fully invested in supply-side economics which is why it is going to take sometime for them to liquidate their mental holdings and change their worldview. Downsiders are concerned about fiscal responsibility and abhor the kind of waste and duplicate effort that leads to innovation.
We at ebTDesign Forum acknowledge that dealing with downsiders may be frustrating but we would advise our readers and twitters followers to engage them because they will eventually change and no market strategy is complete without them. Americans don’t leave their neighbors behind during times of hardships so the concerns of downsiders must be addressed as well as those of the upsiders.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: downsiders, electricity-only, hydrogen, post-Globalization, upsidersFebruary 19th, 2010
How Hydrogen Convergence will obsolete Nuclear Power
There has been a lot buzz surrounding President Barack Obama’s decision to fund new nuclear power plants. Many in the environmental community have become very disheartened at this news. We at the ebTDesign Forum would advise our readers and twitter followers that these new nuclear plants will never be completed because of massively-distributed power generation.
Just before the start of the dotcom era there was a movement to large supercomputers. However with the introduction of massively-parallel grid computing enabled by the Internet, the supercomputer became obsolete overnight. Similarly, a hydrogen convergence “feedback loop” will enable the deployment of massively-distributed power generation. This will obsolete the nuclear power industry, overnight.
The decision to fund nuclear power is a classic example of why supply-side economics doesn’t work any more. From a P2P Economy viewpoint this doesn’t make any sense. Working and middle class Americans are not going to want to raise their children next nuclear waste dumps. The flexibility of massively-distributed power generation and the incremental cost advantage will make investments in nuclear power for other than military purposes nonsensical.
Post-Globalization, we live in an era of more direct democracy. Once working and middle class Americans are presented with a P2P Economy sensitive solution based on hydrogen convergence, there will be numerous ballet initiatives that will outlaw the storage of new nuclear waste and the building of nuclear power plants. Overnight, the nuclear power era will finally come to an end.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: feedback loop, hydrogen, Obama, post-GlobalizationFebruary 18th, 2010
Lets Talk Hydrogen Convergence for 02/18/10
Episode 15: Digging out from under the business threat of global climate change; Unearthing the need for a hydrogen convergence feedback loop; More talk about preparation for the DOE Hydrogen Merit Review and other Hydrogen Convergence Events
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
February 17th, 2010
Why Hydrogen Convergence Feedback Loop is Needed
Recently, I heard an online discussion on the merits of inverters versus micro-inverters. Inverters are used to convert the DC produced by Solar Arrays to AC that can be used by common home appliances and office machines. This discussion reminded me of the debates we had during the UNIX wars when distributed computing professionals talked about “no dinosaur zones.”
The moderator asked, “Which is the best way to perform energy optimization?” The answer from the big inverter company sounded eerily similar to the ones given by the mainframe advocates and the response from the micro-inverter representative would have sounded remarkably familiar to those of us who delighted in dinosaur hunting. In the end, the discussion devolved into talk about total cost of ownership, labor costs, and eventually into cost of copper.
As a part of commercializing the Internet, corporate computer shops ended this kind of debate by changing the conversation. The industry collectively set a goal of establishing a “digital dial tone.” At the ebTDesign Forum, we would suggest that all the cleantech tribes could be brought together by creating a hydrogen convergence “feedback loop” because the above skirmish was fought solely by members of the solar tribe. There are similar battles raging among and between the other cleantech tribes.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles produce a lot more electricity than is required for most homes. Most hydrogen cars produce a minimum 85kW and most homes use about 6kW. This means that a hydrogen convergence feedback loop is needed to regulate electricity flow and extend the operating time of the fuel cells. This concept could scale-up to include energy optimization for commercial real estate properties by enhancing proposed smart meters and establishing a path to hydrogen production and hydrogen feedstock composition.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: energy optimization, feedback loop, hydrogen, hydrogen carsFebruary 16th, 2010
Has Hydrogen Convergence reached Tipping Point?
Many in the mainstream media like to discuss when hydrogen convergence will reach its tipping point. Guessing the tipping point of emerging technologies has become so popular that it is now a parlor game played at even the best upscale parties. However, we at the ebTDesign Forum would advise institutional investors that knowing the point of overreliance is much more important to their success.
The “point of overreliance” is an event that casts doubt on the robustness of a given infrastructure solution. Typically, the point of overreliance ends any extraordinary funding cycle and starts a decline in the assets perceived value. This is because institutional investors must make room in their portfolios for “alternative path” opportunities in order to protect their clients’ money.
The point of overreliance happened for satellite communication when the Challenger Spaces Shuttle accident occurred. It happened for the telephone industry in the early 1990’s when it was found that a single point of failure on the east coast could bring down the entire aviation system. Last week, it happened to the electricity supply industry when 100,000 families in the Greater Washington DC area were left without power after record snowfall.
It does not matter how extraordinary the circumstances are that led to the event. The failure still shows that there is a systemic flaw in the asset deployment and that a risk mitigation plan needs to be executed. As you know, hydrogen convergence is the best alternative path solution for an over stretched electricity power grid. If residents had had hydrogen cars then the record snowfall would have been a nuance but no where near as life threatening.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: alternative path, electricity, hydrogen, point of overrelianceFebruary 15th, 2010
Away Message: Happy Presidents Day and Thank You
We at the ebTDesign Forum wish you and yours a very happy and drama free Presidents Day. We also hope that Valentine’s Day was all that you wished it to be. With all the snow fall and other inclement weather, this has been a very challenging period for many of our readers and twitter followers. We thank you for the time that you spend with us and promise to bring you the very latest on the hydrogen convergence movement.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: hydrogen, postcardFebruary 12th, 2010
Recalculating Fiduciary Responsibility using P2P Economy
As you know, Wall Street and institutional investors have dug themselves a very large public relations hole. Many on Main Street speak loudly about the culture of greed which they believe led to the Great Recession. We at the ebTDesign Forum would advise members of the financial industry to abandon theories of Supply Economics and investigate the concept of P2P Economy.
P2P Economy is loosely based on International Political Economy within a social media context. International political economy, as we at the ebTDesign Forum define it, is the study of how people assess value and make business decisions that takes into account popular or direct democracy. Social media is a phenomenon of low-context cultures in which everyone’s opinions are valued.
Longtime readers of the ebTDesign Forum will recognize this line of reasoning as it relates to the post-Globalization marketplace and free market theory. What we think of today as capitalism is really a construct of the Cold War and the need to stem the tide of socialism that was sweeping the world in 1947. Today, we stand at a similar cross-road where we can either redefine free market theory using P2P Economy or we can watch the post-Globalization marketplace collapse.
This effort has to start with the recalculation of fiduciary responsibility and a reassessment of the value of arms length relationships. The strength of niche populist movements can be seen in the influence of social media networks. Institutional investors would do well to invest in new value systems which place a higher premium on the reputations of their brands and the trust they engender.
Zachary Alexander
Concepts: fiduciary responsibility, P2P Economy, social-media, value systems